EWS Project

      1.Rationale City of Surat, located on River Tapi is India's twelfth and Gujarat’s second most populous city with a population of 2.8 million (Census 2001) is both major trade and industrial centre. Surat lies in the flood plain and also lies in an estuarial region. There are  number of creeks in the south-western part of the city. The city has been historically susceptible to flooding. Flood risk exposure and vulnerability of the city has increased over the past few decades. Flood in the year 2006 covered almost the entire city and affected nearly 75 percent of the population.  The results of regional and global climate models indicate increase in total precipitation as well as increase in extreme precipitation events. The results of A2 and B2 Scenarios of PRECIS model indicate 20% to 30% increase in current precipitation in the region along with increase in frequency of extreme events. Such changes may increase frequency and intensity of floods. Further, Surat is located about 15 km from coast and the altitude is less than 13 m above mean sea level. Even with a sea level rise of one meter, the area under high tide zone (western parts of the city) may be impacted.

      2. End-to-End Early Warning System Provision of timely and effective information, through identified institutions, to prepare for effective response. End-to-End EWS will also aid individuals exposed to flood hazard to take prompt action to avoid or reduce their risk.

      3. Objective To set up an End-to-End Early Warning System (under ACCCRN Phase III) to reduce the intensity of floods and resultant flood damage to Surat city.

      4. Scope  

      - To aid in improved reservoir operations to manage peak floods caused by extreme precipitation events in Upper and Middle Tapi basin. 

      - To facilitate city administration, institutions and society in their planning, preparedness and management practices before and during  flood emergencies (including tidal creeks floods).

      5. Cause of Flood Risk 

      A. Fluvial Flood 

         - Monsoon depression from Bay of Bengal (travelling East to West) concentrating flow along Tapi River. 

        - Need for storing maximum water in reservoir to meet non monsoon water demand for agriculture. This competing purpose reduces flood cushion in the dam. 

        - In Surat, settlements are on either side of the river banks. 

        - Human induced topography and hydrological changes (embankments, bridges and weir)

      B. Tidal Creeks Flood

        - Western part of city is lies in LECZ (less than 10m above  mean sea level).

        - Combination of pluvial floods with tide.

      6. Approach 

       - Engagement with Stakeholders,  

       - Climate Change Informed Modeling, 

       - Early Warning and Disaster Management System, 

       - Information and Support to Vulnerable,  

       - Ensuring Sustainability.

     7. Expected Outcomes  

       - Increase respite time, 

       - Provides timely and effective information on flood hazard, 

       - Can reduce hazard intensity (reservoir management), 

       - Reduce magnitude of disaster (timely evacuation, preparedness),  

       - Support administration to prepare for effective last mile response well in advance. 

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